Health Care: Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics
The headline in the NY Times proclaims, "Most Support U.S. Support of Health Care". But if you look at the pdf document that details the findings the story is not so clear.
At the bottom of page 15 of the details are the following questions:
In the current weeks survey 64% think the government should guarantee health insurance for all. 27% think it is not the Federal government's responsibility and 9% did not respond.
The very next question asks:
If their own health insurance costs would go up only 48% continue to support Federal guarantees.
Later, on page 16 the survey asks:
Answering this question, 60% say they are willing to pay higher taxes; 34% are not willing and 6% don't know or have no answer.
The next question provides a little more clarity:
Here we find that only 49% of the original 60% remain willing to shell out $500 in taxes to support their notion of universal health equality.
So, instead of a story that asserts "most" Americans are in favor of guaranteed health insurance for all, it really depends on how much it will cost. It turns out that only a minority (48% and 49%) are willing to dip into their own pockets to support the uninsured.
In health insurance, as in all government policies, the devil is in the details. The problem facing advocates of any form of universal insurance, single payer, private payers, whatever, is that the costs are so high. Once the details of any given plan are fleshed out, people realize that the only remaining advocates that will truly matter are the health provider organizations. Those groups will be the only ones with any real power over the future of the program and their interest lies only in maintaining the extraordinary costs of their drugs or services. Anyone who has been hospitalized knows how outrageous those costs are.
The drumbeat marching us forward toward the glories of universal health care are sounding. My prediction is that it is highly likely to end in Hillary Redux, a repeat of the health care efforts of the early Clinton years.
At the bottom of page 15 of the details are the following questions:
"27. Do you think the federal government should guarantee health insurance for all Americans, or isn’t this the responsibility of the federal government?"
In the current weeks survey 64% think the government should guarantee health insurance for all. 27% think it is not the Federal government's responsibility and 9% did not respond.
The very next question asks:
"28. IF ANSWERED “SHOULD GUARANTEE”, ASK: What if that meant that the cost of your own health insurance would go up? Then, do you think the federal government should guarantee health insurance for all Americans, or not?"
If their own health insurance costs would go up only 48% continue to support Federal guarantees.
Later, on page 16 the survey asks:
"31. Would you be willing or not willing to pay higher taxes so that all Americans have health insurance that they can't lose no matter what?"
Answering this question, 60% say they are willing to pay higher taxes; 34% are not willing and 6% don't know or have no answer.
The next question provides a little more clarity:
"32. IF ANSWERED “WILLING” TO Q31, ASK: Would you be willing or not willing to pay $500 a year more in taxes so that all Americans have health insurance they can't lose, no matter what?"
Here we find that only 49% of the original 60% remain willing to shell out $500 in taxes to support their notion of universal health equality.
So, instead of a story that asserts "most" Americans are in favor of guaranteed health insurance for all, it really depends on how much it will cost. It turns out that only a minority (48% and 49%) are willing to dip into their own pockets to support the uninsured.
In health insurance, as in all government policies, the devil is in the details. The problem facing advocates of any form of universal insurance, single payer, private payers, whatever, is that the costs are so high. Once the details of any given plan are fleshed out, people realize that the only remaining advocates that will truly matter are the health provider organizations. Those groups will be the only ones with any real power over the future of the program and their interest lies only in maintaining the extraordinary costs of their drugs or services. Anyone who has been hospitalized knows how outrageous those costs are.
The drumbeat marching us forward toward the glories of universal health care are sounding. My prediction is that it is highly likely to end in Hillary Redux, a repeat of the health care efforts of the early Clinton years.
Labels: Health Care, polls, statistics
posted by Joe Hogan at
5:18 PM
